>> Cathy: IT'S JULY 10TH IN MINNESOTA.

I THINK WE CAN OFFICIALLY SAY THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ARE HERE.

IT WAS HOT TODAY, IT WILL BE HOTTER TOMORROW AND THE DAY AFTER THAT.

AND AFTER THAT.

AND THE REAL QUESTION IS, WILL WE HIT OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURE OF THE SEASON BEFORE NEXT FRIDAY'S SHOW?

PAUL DOUGLAS IS HERE.

WHEN HE'S NOT JOINING US IN STUDIO B YOU CAN CATCH HIS PREDICTIONS IN THE STAR TRIBUNE AND HE ALSO RUNS HIS OWN WEATHER COMPANY ALLED PRAEDICTIX.

LET US TALK ABOUT HAT TORNADO AROUND DETROIT LAKES.

>> YEP.

>> Cathy: IT WAS ON THE GROUND FOR HALF-MILE?

NO.

>> IT WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 7 MILES.

>> Cathy: AND IT WAS A HALF-MILE WIDE.

WHAT THE HECK.

>> BIG FLOYD LAKE.

THIS WAS A SIZEABLE TWISTER, EF2, ESTIMATED WINDS 115.

I'M RELIEVED THERE WERE ONLY TWO INJURIES TO MY KNOWLEDGE BASED ON WHAT THE WEATHER SERVICE ANALYSIS SHOWED FROM GRAND FORKS, BUT, YEAH, IT'S BEEN A REASONABLY QUIET YEAR FOR TORNADOES, THAT'S BEEN THE MOST IMPACTFUL.

AND I WANT TO GET RIGHT TO THE DECISION THAT WAS MADE FOR THE TWIN CITIES MARATHON.

PUSHING IT BACK.

>> Cathy: ANOTHER BIT OF NEWS WEATHER-WISE.

>> BASED ON DATA, ASED ON THE FACT THAT, YES, OCTOBERS ARE TRENDING WARMER.

>> Eric: I'M MORE OF A VISUAL LEARNER, MAYBE YOU COULD -- >> Cathy: THERE YOU ARE.

>> WERE WE HAVE VISUALS, YES, WE DO.

>> Eric: GO FOR IT.

>> IF YOU LOOK AT 18-YEAR TIME SLOTS WE'VE ALMOST TRIPLED THE NUMBER OF 70-DEGREE-PLUS DAYS FOR THE TWIN CITIES MARATHON.

IT STARTED IN '82, BETWEEN '82 AND 2000 ONLY THREE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 70.

BETWEEN 2007 AND LAST YEAR, EIGHT TIMES, WE'VE HAD 80s, WE'VE HAD 90s.

MY WIFE RAN SIX MARATHONS INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES MARATHON.

SHE SAID, YOU NOW, 40s, 50s IS KIND OF THE SWEET SPOT, ANYTHING MORE THAN 07 AND IT CAN BE DANGEROUS FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE.

SO I UNDERSTAND WHY THEY MADE THAT DECISION.

BASED ON THE WEATHER SERVICE, 30-YEAR CLIMATE DATA WE ARE NOW SEEING ON AVERAGE 24 MORE DAYS OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE NOW THAN WE DID BACK IN 1970.

AND MINNESOTA IS ONE OF THE FASTEST WARMING FALL STATES IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY.

THE WARMING SIGNAL IS STRONGEST IN THE WINTER.

NUMBER TWO SEASON IS FALL.

WE'RE SIMPLY SEEING MORE 60s, 70s, 80s DEEPER INTO OCTOBER.

AND, YEAH, THAT'S CONSISTENT WITH A WARMING ATMOSPHERE.

WE'RE ALSO PROBABLY GETTING A BOOST FROM THIS MAJOR EL NINO.

SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS SHOW 4, 5 CELSIUS WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

WHICH IS A BIG DEAL.

IF IT REALLY TURNS OUT TO BE 8, 9 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN THE PACIFIC, THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED AT LEAST SINCE WE'VE BEEN TRACKING THESE EL NINO PHENOMENON.

>> Cathy: WOW.

>> AND WHAT EFFECT THAT WILL HAVE, WE WILL SEE.

BUT STRONG CORRELATION WITH WARMER WINTERS FOR MINNESOTA.

AND AGAIN WE'RE SORT OF OFF THE SCALE IN TERMS OF THE WARMTH AND THE DEPTH OF WARM WATER IN THE PACIFIC.

YOU CAN SEE PREVIOUS YEARS THE AVERAGE, THE MEAN IS SORT OF THAT DARK GREY LINE AND YOU CAN SEE WHERE WE ARE ARE.

WE'RE WAY UP THERE.

SO, YEAH, EL NINO, HERE WE GO.

AND IT'S PROBABLY GOING TO HELP TO HEAT THINGS UP STARTING NEXT WEEK WHEN A HEAT DOME, A BUBBLE OF HOT, DRY DESERT AIR IS GOING TO STALL TEMPORARILY.

IT'S GOING TO BE TOO DRY ALOFT TO GET THUNDERSTORMS.

AND THE RESULT IS GOING TO BE A SLOUGH OF 90s, A SHOT AT 100.

I'M NOT CONVINCED THE METRO WILL SEE 100.

I THINK SOUTH AND WEST OF THE METRO, WESTERN MINNESOTA, A BETTER CHANCE OF 100-DEGREE HEAT FOR A WEEK, MAYBE TWO WEEKS.

THIS COULD BE THE HOTTEST SPELL OF THE SUMMER.

AND PEOPLE SAY, YOU KNOW, PAUL, HOW DID OUR ANCESTORS DEAL WITH 25 DAYS OF 100-PLUS DURING THE DUST BOWL?

>> Cathy: THEY WERE TOUGH, THOUGH.

>> THEY WERE TOUGH.

DID THEY COMPLAIN?

PROBABLY, BUT THEY PERSEVERED, SLEPT IN SLEEPING PORCHES, MOVED FROM UPSTAIRS INTO THE LOWER LEVEL, IF THEY AD A BASEMENT, THEY SPENT MUCH OF THEIR DAY IN THE BASEMENT, SLEPT NEAR LAKES, AND A LOT OF FARMERS GOT UP AT 4:00 A.M.

EVEN EARLIER TO TRY TO GET THEIR WORK DONE BEFORE THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON.

I WAS IN CHICAGO WORKING, WELL, PRETENDING TO WORK IN 1995 WHEN THERE WAS JUST A MEGA HEATWAVE, FIVE DAYS, 739 PEOPLE LOST THEIR LIVES, MANY OF THEM UNABLE OR NWILLING TO LEAVE THEIR HOMES OR APARTMENTS.

DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 80s.

NIGHTS IN THE 80s.

AND PEOPLE SIMPLY COULDN'T GET RELIEF.

AND THIS IS WHAT THE DATA SHOWS.

IT'S NOT THE DAYTIME HIGHS, IT'S THE NIGHTTIME LOWS.

IF YOU GO THREE, FOUR NIGHTS IN A ROW IN THE 80s, PEOPLE CAN'T RECOVER.

HEAT, THE NUMBER ONE KILLER IN THE COUNTRY.

AND, AGAIN, THAT HEATWAVE IN '95 CHANGED HOW THE WEATHER SERVICE APPROACHES HEAT.

THEY APPROACH IT NOW LIKE THEY WOULD AN ONCOMING HURRICANE CAPABLE OF A SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF LIFE.

WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN?

I THINK WE'RE GOING TO HAVE REAL SUMMER, A SUPERSIZED SUMMER, AND A LONGER, MILDER AUTUMN, LESS SNOW, PROBABLY MORE RAIN, MIXED PRECIPITATION, I'M THINKING A DES MOINES WINTER.

>> Cathy: AWW, REALLY?

>> COULD BE KANSAS CITY WINTER.

>> Eric: EXCELLENT INFORMATION TONIGHT, THANK YOU.

>> Cathy: KEEP COOL.

>> WE GOT THE CRAZY EXTREMES.

CAMPFIRES BANNED IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS, FIRE