CONSPIRACY AND OTHER VIOLATIONS.

BUT WE START TONIGHT WITH NATIONAL POLITICS.

THE MID-TERM ELECTIONS ARE JUST A LITTLE MORE THAN FOUR WEEKS AWAY.

NOT THAT WE'RE COUNTING.

SEVERAL CLOSE CONGRESSIONAL RACES ARE HEATING UP AROUND THE COUNTRY AND PRESIDENT TRUMP IS CONTINUING HIS QUEST TO USURP THE SPENDING POWER OF CONGRESS.

KATHRYN PEARSON IS BACK.

ONE OF HER SPECIALTY IS CONGRESS.

CONGRESS ADJOURNED FOR THE MIDTERMS.

LET US LOOK AT THE OVERALL SESSION, WHAT'S THE VERDICT ON IT?

>> WELL, IT'S A VERY MIXED VERDICT.

AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS THAT SORT OF TRUMP AND A REPUBLICAN-CONTROLLED HOUSE AND SENATE SET AT THE OUTSET, THEY'VE REALLY GOTTEN -- THEY'VE SORT OF MISSED OUT ON THE SECOND YEAR.

YOU KNOW, IN THE FIRST YEAR OF THIS UNIFIED REPUBLICAN PARTY CONTROL, THEY PASSED THE SO-CALLED BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL, WHICH HAD TAX CUTS, A LOT OF SPENDING CUTS, PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNED IT ON THE FOURTH OF JULY, A LITTLE OVER A YEAR AND A HALF AGO, AND THE REPUBLICANS WERE CELEBRATING, THINKING THEY HAD MORE MOMENTUM.

AFTER, THAT THE THINGS REALLY STALLED.

THERE WAS A HOUSING BILL BUT A LOT OF UNMET DEMAND, BANNING MEMBERS FROM SORT OF OWNING STOCK OR THE AI INDUSTRY ASKING CONGRESS TO EGULATE IT, CONGRESS SORT OF FAILING TO DO SO, THE HOUSE ADJOURNING A FEW WEEKS AGO WHEN REALLY CONGRESS HAD WORK LEFT TO DO.

I GUESS THE GOOD NEWS IS, OFTEN AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WE'RE IN A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AND THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN.

BUT, YOU KNOW, CONGRESS DID NOT IVE UP TO THE EXPECTATIONS THAT REPUBLICANS SET FOR THEMSELVES.

>> REASONS FOR THAT?

>> NARROW MARGINS, FOR ONE.

AND THEN ALSO DESPITE UNIFIED PARTY CONTROL, SORT OF A LACK, I THINK, OF GOOD COMMUNICATION WITH THE PRESIDENT AND CONGRESS.

THUNE, AN EXPERIENCED REPUBLICAN MAJORITY LEADER, GETTING RUSTRATED WITH THE PRESIDENT, VICE VERSA, MIKE JOHNSON LEAVING A FEW WEEKS AGO SO MEMBERS COULD CAMPAIGN IN TOUGH DISTRICTS.

>> Cathy: SO I WONDER HOW WHEN YOU LOOK AT, SAY, THE GREAT BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL, AS A PIECE OF LEGISLATION, HOW DOES THAT STACK UP?

>> WELL, IT WAS A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF LEGISLATION.

IT HAD MAJOR TAX CUTS, MAJOR SPENDING CUTS.

IT CERTAINLY MET SOME OF THE REPUBLICANS' SPENDING GOALS AND GOALS TO REDUCE TAXES.

SO THAT WAS A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF LEGISLATION, PASSED AS A RECONCILIATION BILL SO IT ONLY NEEDED REPUBLICAN SUPPORT BUT THEN THERE WERE A LOT OF PROMISES TO FOLLOW UP WITH MORE RECONCILIATION BILLS AND THAT JUST DIDN'T HAPPEN.

SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE LATEST SORT OF TRUMP'S END RUN AROUND CONGRESS, THIS $810 MILLION RESCISSIONS BILL, WHY DIDN'T REPUBLICANS DO THAT IN A SECOND RECONCILIATION PACKAGE?

AGAIN, IT'S A UNIFIED REPUBLICAN CONGRESS AND TRUMP SEEMS TO BE AT ODDS WITH HIS OWN MEMBERS EVEN AS HE IS TELLING THEM, YOU KNOW, CAMPAIGN SORT OF WITH ME.

>> Eric: THE SITUATION WHERE YOU HAVE -- WHERE YOU HAVE -- I'VE LOST MY TRAIN OF THOUGHT.

GO AHEAD.

>> Cathy: THAT'S OKAY.

SAY, I WANT TO ASK ABOUT THE REPUBLICANS AND TRUMP, IN TERMS OF NOT BEING MAYBE ON THE SAME PAGE.

SOME SEEM LIKE THEY'RE SKITTISH AND ARE RUNNING AWAY FROM HIM.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

>> >> Cathy: LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT.

>> EVERY MIDTERM ELECTION IS A REFERENDUM ON THE INCUMBENT PRESIDENT EVEN THOUGH THE PRESIDENT IS NOT ON THE BALLOT.

BUT SOME MIDTERM ELECTIONS ARE SET UP TO BE WAVE ELECTIONS FOR THE OUT PARTY.

SO, YOU KNOW, 2010, DEMOCRATS LOSE 64 SEATS BECAUSE PRESIDENT OBAMA IS UNPOPULAR.

2018, REPUBLICANS LOST 40 SEATS BECAUSE TRUMP WAS UNPOPULAR.

THEY'RE JUST FEWER COMPETITIVE SEATS.

REPUBLICANS HAVE ALSO SORT OF GAINED IN THE REDISTRICTING WARS, MAYBE ABOUT NINE SEATS.

SO THERE ARE NOT THAT MANY SEATS IN PLAY.

BUT IT'S A VERY NARROW MARGIN AND, SO, THE REPUBLICANS WHO ARE FACING COMPETITIVE ELECTIONS DON'T WANT TO BE SEEN WITH AN UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT.

>> Cathy: SO THEN I'M WONDERING, WHAT DO THE SMART PEOPLE THINK COULD CONGRESS FLIP TO DEMOCRATIC CONTROL?

>> THINK IT'S DEFINITELY POSSIBLE AND, IN FACT, LIKELY THAT CONGRESS WILL FLIP TO DEMOCRATIC CONTROL.

BUT IT WON'T BE ONE OF THESE BIG WAVES THAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE PAST BECAUSE THERE JUST AREN'T HAT MANY COMPETITIVE SEATS.

SO MAYBE IT'S, YOU KNOW, A MARGIN OF FIVE DEMOCRAT SEATS, MAYBE UP TO 15, BUT I PREDICT THAT THE NEXT CONGRESS WILL HAVE A PRETTY NARROW HOUSE MAJORITY, WHICHEVER PARTY IS IN CONTROL.

>> Eric: HOW FAR ALONG IS THE 2028 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN?

>> WELL, I WAS JUST TELLING MY 150 STUDENTS IN MY CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS CLASS, I GUARANTEE, RIGHT AFTER THE MIDTERMS, WE WILL E SEEING A FLOOD OF ARTICLES ABOUT SORT OF WHO'S AHEAD IN THE ENDORSEMENT CONTEST, THE FUND-RAISING CONTEST.

SO I THINK, YOU NEGOTIATION ONCE THE MIDTERMS ARE OVER AND ATTENTION SHIFTS, I THINK WE WILL SEE A LOT OF DEMOCRATS SORT OF GEARING UP.

HOW MANY OF THEM WILL ACTUALLY RUN, I THINK IS TO BE DETERMINED.

BUT IT WILL BE A COMPETITIVE FIELD, AND THEN ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, YOU NOW, OBVIOUSLY JD VANCE IS A CONTENDER, MARKO RUBIO, TED CRUZ, SOME FAMILIAR NAMES.

BUT, AGAIN, YOU KNOW, WILL TRUMP SORT OF REALLY ANOINT ONE OF THEM?

I DON'T KNOW.

>> Cathy: ALL RIGHT.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.