>> Eric: THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN A MANHATTAN COURTROOM A 12-MEMBER JURY FOUND FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP GUILTY ON ALL 34 COUNTS IN HIS SO-CALLED HUSH MONEY TRIAL.

TRUMP BECOMES THE FIRST FORMER PRESIDENT IN U.S. HISTORY TO BE A CONVICTED FELON.

SENTENCING HAS BEEN SET FOR JULY 11TH, JUST FOUR DAYS BEFORE THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION THAT IS SET TO NOMINATE THE FORMER PRESIDENT AS ITS CURRENT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE.

WE'VE BEEN FOLLOWING THE TRIAL AND THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE WITH OUR ROTATING GROUP OF POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSORS.

AND WE'VE ROUNDED UP A DUO OF THEM TONIGHT.

DAVID SCHULTZ TEACHES POLITICS AT HAMLINE UNIVERSITY AND IS AN ADJUNCT LAW PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ST. THOMAS.

THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA IS THE ACADEMIC HOME OF LARRY JACOBS.

HE HEADS UP THE CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE AT THE HUMPHREY SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS.

HOW PRESIDENT CONTENT-SETTING IS THIS?

AND DOES THIS CHANGE THE LANDSCAPE?

>> WELL, THERE'S LEGAL AND POLITICAL ISSUES HERE.

IN TERMS OF LEGAL LANDSCAPE HERE, YOU'RE RIGHT, IT IS PRECEDENT-SETTING IN THE SENSE AS YOU POINTED OUT IN THE INTRO, THE FIRST EVER.

BUT I'M ALSO GOING TO MAKE AN ARGUMENT HERE AND SAY AS PRECEDENT SETTING, IT'S A REALLY IMPORTANT PRECEDENT HERE ALSO TOO, WHICH IS THE FACT THAT WHAT?

NOBODY IS ABOVE THE LAW AND EVERYBODY IS ACCOUNTABLE TO THE LAW.

AND THEY DID THE BEST JOB THEY COULD TO TAKE AN EX-PRESIDENT AND WEDGE HIM INTO A NORMAL CRIMINAL JUSTICE PROCESS AND I THINK THEY DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB.

AND THE SECOND POINT I'M GOING TO MAKE I THINK LARRY IS GOING TO DO IT MORE HERE.

DOES IT CHANGE ANYTHING POLITICALLY?

EH.

>> YEAH, I GREE ON THE POLITICAL POINT.

IF DONALD TRUMP WASN'T PUNISHED FOR JANUARY 6TH AND HE'S GOT THE ACCESS HOLLYWOOD, WHY IS THIS GOING TO TRANSFORM THINGS?

PARTICULARLY WHEN YOU'VE GOT SUCH POWERFUL PARTISAN LOYALTIES.

YOU CAN KIND OF START TO CLOSELY EXAMINE SOME OF THE DIFFERENT GROUPS OF VOTERS BUT WE'RE GOING TO LOOK AT, AS DAVID SAID, A VERY SMALL OF SHIFTS.

I DON'T THINK THIS IS TRANSFORMATIVE, WHICH PROBABLY IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR JOE BIDEN, BECAUSE WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE CAMPAIGN IF NOT THIS?

>> IF WE LOOK AT IT AT THIS POINT, FIRST OFF, WE'RE, WHAT, FIVE MONTHS AWAY FROM THE ELECTION OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, POLITICAL ETERNITY TOO, VOTERS ARE STILL GOING TO SAY, WHAT?

THE ECONOMY, INFLATION, MAYBE GAZAARE SOMETHING LIKE THAT, MAYBE THE SOUTHERN BORDER IN TERMS OF BIGGER ISSUES.

BUT THE POLLING I'VE SEEN AT THIS POINT SAYS IT'S A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO SUPPORT TRUMP WHO MIGHT MOVE AWAY FROM HIM BUT IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN THEY'RE GOING TO GO TO BIDEN.

THEY MIGHT STAY OUT OF THE ELECTION, MIGHT GO FOR RFK JUNIOR.

BIDEN'S NOT GOING TO GET MUCH OF A BUMP ON THIS.

>> Cathy: SAY, HELP ME OUT HERE.

WHAT'S THE RATIONALE FOR A TRUMP SUPPORTER TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT WHO'S NOW A CONVICTED FELON?

>> LOYALTY TO THE PARTY.

AND I THINK DONALD TRUMP IS VERY SKILLED AT MOBILIZING RESENTMENT AGAINST THE POLITICAL SYSTEM AND USING IT TO HIS BENEFIT.

WHEN HE WAS STANDING OUTSIDE THE COURT YESTERDAY, WHAT WAS HE SAYING?

HE WAS SAYING I TOO HAVE BEEN A VICTIM.

I'M A POLITICAL PRISONER.

I TOO KNOW THE SENSE OF BEING ATTACKED BY THIS VICIOUS POLITICAL SYSTEM.

AND HE USES THAT TO KIND OF MOBILIZE HIS SUPPORT.

BUT THE MAIN THING IS WE'RE A PERIOD WHERE THAT PARTISAN LOYALTY, PARTICULARLY IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, IT'S LIKE SUPERGLUE.

>> I'M GOING TO ADD ONE MORE THING.

I THINK IT'S PARTISAN, EVEN MORE SO FOR HIM IT'S PERSONAL.

IT'S PERSONAL LOYALTY.

I THINK EVEN MORE SO.

IT'S THAT CHARISMATIC AUTHORITY, YEAH.

>> Eric: SOME OF THE MORE CONSERVATIVE LEGAL WATCHERS SAID BASICALLY THE PROSECUTION REVIVED A MISDEMEANOR CASE, MORPHED IT INTO A FELONY CASE AND THE CASE WAS A REACH, IN ANY CASE.

WHAT DO YOU THINK >> I DON'T AGREE.

I DON'T AGREE AGREE.

FIRST OFF THE FACT THAT 12 JURORS AGREED WITH THEM ON THIS ONE DOESN'T SUGGEST TO ME IT'S A REACH AND SECOND, THERE ARE OTHER CASES IN NEW YORK WHERE THEY HAVE USED -- THEY'VE USED THE SAME STATUTE FOR PROSECUTION FOR BUSINESS FRAUD.

NOW, THE JUMP, THE LIFT FROM MISDEMEANOR FROM FELONY HASN'T BEEN ELECTION LAW BUT OTHER THINGS.

SO IT'S NOT REALLY THAT MUCH OF A REACH IN TERMS OF WHAT WAS GOING ON HERE.

I'VE SEEN A LOT, AGAIN, LOT F COMMENTATORS MAKE THAT ARGUMENT HERE.

NO, THIS IS PRETTY OUTINE IN A DISTRICT THAT DOES A LOT OF BUSINESS LITIGATION.

>> AND I THINK IT'S FAIR AMONG, YOU KNOW, THOUGHTFUL COMMENTATORS TO SAY THERE WERE OTHER CASES AMONG THE FOUR THAT HE'S FACING THAT WERE MORE SERIOUS.

I MEAN, RETAINING CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS.

BEING INVOLVED IN TRYING TO OVERTURN THE 2020 ELECTION.

I MEAN, THOSE WERE REALLY PROFOUND CASES BUT THE REALITY IS THEY'VE GOTTEN EITHER SIDETRACKED IN GEORGIA OR THEY'VE GOTTEN BOGGED DOWN IN THE LEGAL MANEUVERING THAT, YOU KNOW, IT'S NOT UNCOMMON.

SO THIS IS THE CASE THAT MOVED, AND IT SO HAPPENS THAT IT'S IN MANHATTAN.

NOW, IN FAIRNESS THIS IS OBVIOUSLY DEMOCRATIC D.A.

>> Eric: WOULD A CHANGE OF VENUE HELP TRUMP?

>> I DON'T -- I THOUGHT SO INITIALLY BUT JUST HAVING SPENT WAY TOO MUCH TIME FOLLOWING THIS CASE, THERE WAS SUCH A VAST AMOUNT OF EVIDENCE.

YOU KNOW, I'D LIKE TO THINK THAT A NORMAL PERSON SITTING IN THAT COURTROOM THAT SAW JUST THE OLUMES OF WRITTEN DOCUMENTS AND THAT BACKED UP THE TESTIMONY OF INDIVIDUALS, THEY WOULD HAVE, YOU KNOW, REACHED A SIMILAR DECISION.

>> WHAT I THINK IS INTERESTING TO THINK ABOUT IT HERE, TWO PEOPLE, COHEN AND DAVID PECKER, PEOPLE WHO KNEW HIM VERY CLOSE, MANY WAYS CONFIDANTS IN HIM, WHO WERE VERY CRITICAL IN CORROBORATING ONE ANOTHER, CORROBORATING DOCUMENTATION.

WHAT I'M GETTING AT HERE IS THESE WERE NOT HOSTILE WITNESSES, THESE WERE PEOPLE WHO WERE HIS CONFIDANTES FOR YEARS AND THESE WERE THE PEOPLE WHO PROVIDE SOME OF THE MOST CRITICAL TESTIMONY IN INDICTING HIM.

>> Cathy: SAY, WHAT MIGHT BE GROUNDS FOR APPEAL?

IS >> THERE'S A COUPLE POSSIBLE HERE.

ONE IS GOING TO BE THE JUDGE ISSUED THE RIGHT MOTIONS ON CERTAIN ORDERS.

SECOND, THEY'RE GOING TO TRY TO DO QUESTION OF CHANGE OF VENUE, BIASED JURORS PERHAPSIN TERMS OF THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE JURORS THAT WERE ALLOWED TO SIT THAT THE DEFENSE DIDN'T LIKE AND I THINK POSSIBLY BOTH JURY INSTRUCTIONS AS WELL AS THE PREJOURNAL -- LET'S SAY MORE THAN YOU NEEDED TESTIMONY FROM STORMY DANIELS LET'S SAY THE SEXUAL BEHAVIOR.

WE'LL LET IT GO AS THAT.

>> BUT THAT'S GOING TO TEAM YEARS.

>> YEAH, THERE'S NO QUESTION, NO QUESTION HE RUNS FOR PRESIDENT AS A CONVICTED FELON, NO WAY THE APPELLATE DIVISION IS GOING TO OVERTURN OR HEAR THIS CASE BEFORE THE ELECTION.

>> Cathy: SO LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT -- WE HAVE A PERSON RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT AS A CONVICTED FELON.

I MEAN, HELP US OUT ERE.

CAN HE VOTE?

I MEAN, -- AS A CONVICTED FELON, WHY IS HE RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT?

WHAT ARE THE RULES AROUND THIS?

>> THE RULES FOR RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT ARE VERY SIMPLE.

THEY'RE IN THE CONSTITUTION.

HE'S GOT TO BE 35 YEARS OLD, NATURAL-BORN CITIZEN, GOT TO BE RESIDING HERE IN 14 YEARS.

THAT'S IT.

>> THAT'S IT.

>> THAT'S IT AND NOW HE CAN RUN FOR PRESIDENT.

NOW, IS HE GOING TO BE PUNISHED BY BEING CONVICTED BY VOTERS?

AND I THINK PRETTY MUCH EVERYBODY FOLLOWING THIS SAYS, YEAH, THAT WILL BE THE.

MAT TEST.

WE HAVE A COUNTRY OF LAWS AND WE LIKE TO BELIEVE THAT OUR LAWS ARE OUR NORMS DON'T JUST PUT THIS IN THE HANDS OF VOTERS AT THE END OF THE DAY.

BUT THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE CASES WHERE VOTERS ARE GOING TO DECIDE IT.

I DON'T THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT.

AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE KEY FINDINGS FROM A LOT OF RESEARCH IS VOTERS TEND TO RESPOND TO EVENTS JUST BEFORE ELECTION DAY.

IT'S RECENT, IT'S IN THEIR FOREFRONT OF THEIR MIND.

THIS IS FIVE MONTHS AWAY.

>> Cathy: E'LL BE TALKING ABOUT SOMETHING DIFFERENT COME ELECTION DAY.

>> Eric: THE DONATION SITE FROM REPUBLICANS MELTED DOWN, THERE WERE SO MANY SMALL DONATIONS, 35 MILLION SINCE THE VERDICT WAS ANNOUNCED.

THIS SEEMS TO HAVE STRUCK A NERVE WITH HIS BASE ANYWAY.

>> I WAS GOING TO SAY ONE OF THE THINGS THAT DEMOCRATS WERE HOPING IS FOR A CONVICTION, DON'T WISH FOR CERTAIN THINGS BECAUSE THIS IS GOING TO MOTIVATE HIS BASE LIKE THERE'S NO TOMORROW.

AGAIN, 35 MILLION IS A GOOD INDICATION.

THE ENTHUSIASM AMONG TRUMP'S BASE SO MUCH DWARFS BIDEN THAT BIDEN NEEDS SOMETHING TO GET THAT ENTHUSIASM.

IT'S NOT THERE.

>> BUT, YOU KNOW, I WOULD SAY FOR TRUMP THE BIG PROBLEM FOR HIM IS HE CAN'T JUST RUN ON THOSE MOTIVATED VOTERS.

HE NEEDS TO BRING IN INDEPENDENTS AND OTHER VOTERS AND WHEN YOU HAVE CARL ROVE SAYING THERE'S A PROBLEM HERE, I THINK THAT'S WHAT HE'S LOOKING AT.

BECAUSE THERE IS DATA SHOWING THAT THE INDEPENDENT VOTERS, DISENGAGED VOTERS, THEY HAVE QUESTIONS AND SOME OF THESE QUESTIONS ARE RELATED TO VOTING FOR A FELON.

>> NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, YOU'VE HEARD ME SAY IT BEFORE, ABOUT 150,000 VOTERS IN SIX DAYS, JUST GOING TO MOVE A MICRO