>>> THE TREES ARE CHANGING TO THEIR VIBRANT COLORS.

A LOT OF TREES ALREADY HAVE LOST THE COLOR.

BUT IT DOESN'T FEEL LIKE FALL, RIGHT?

METEOROLOGIST PAUL DOUGLAS IS HERE TO TALK ABOUT ALL THINGS WEATHER WHEN HE'S NOT PENNING HIS COLUMN FOR THE STAR TRIBUNE.

HE HAS HIS OWN WEATHER COMPANY CALLED PRAEDICTIX.

I LIKE THE WARM WEATHER, BUT I FEEL GUILTY BECAUSE YOU SHOULDN'T HAVE 70s AND 80s IN OCTOBER.

>> IT IS A GUILTY PLEASURE.

I SHARE THAT.

I FEEL LIKE I'M A WEATHER GUY IN SAN DIEGO.

>> YES.

>> WHAT AM I GOING TO TALK ABOUT TODAY?

THERE'S NO WEATHER.

CRYSTAL-CLEAR SKIES, LIKE LIVING IN A POSTCARD.

THIS WEEK -- >> IS IT WRONG?

>> YEAH, IT'S A LITTLE WRONG.

THERE ARE NO BEAUTIFUL DROUGHTS, MARY.

THAT IS AN OXYMORON.

AND YES, MUCH OF THE STATE IS IN DROUGHT, RIGHT?

>> UH-HUH.

>> BUT, YES, IT HAS BEEN GORGEOUS.

AND IF ANYBODY ASKS, AND I HOPE THEY DON'T, TODAY WAS THE 1 47th DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH THE MERCURY AT OR ABOVE 70.

THE FIFTH-MOST ON RECORD.

AND BY THE WAY, FOUR OF THE FIVE LONGEST STRETCHES OF 70s TAKING PLACE SINCE 2016.

HALF THE YEAR, WE HAVE BEEN 70 OR WARMER.

>> THAT IS CALIFORNIA.

>> EXPLAIN THAT TO A NONMINNESOTA.

>> WOW.

>> AND YEAH, WE'RE REALLY PAST PEAK NOW ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.

STILL SOME POCKETS OF COLOR.

AND I THINK YOU'RE RIGHT.

THE COLORS SEEM DULLER.

I SEEM DULLER.

>> NO!

NEVER.

STOP.

.

.

>> AND THERE'S A REASON FOR THAT.

WHEN IT GETS DRY, TREES GO INTO SELF PRESERVATION MODE.

AND THEY LOSE THEIR LEAVES SO THEY DON'T HAVE TO EVAPORATE AS MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE AIR AND THE DROUGHT IS IMPACTING SUGAR PRODUCTION, PHOTOSYNTHESIS.

SO, YEAH, NOT YOUR IMAGINATION.

STILL BEAUTIFUL OUT THERE, BUT NOT QUITE AS VIBRANT AS PREVIOUS YEARS.

TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE IN MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT.

WE HAVE EXTREME DROUGHT IN PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN, EVEN WORSE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF WISCONSIN.

BUT, YEAH, IT'S NOT REALLY GETTING ANY BETTER OUT THERE.

AND WITH THIS BREWING EL NINO, WHICH IS NOW WELL UNDER WAY, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT DROUGHT INTO MUCH, MUCH OF NEXT YEAR.

A REPORT FROM KMSQ -- KSMQ -- >> AUSTIN, ROCHESTER, DOWN THERE, YEAH.

OUR FRIENDS.

>> WELCOME ABOARD.

AND I FOUND IT INTERESTING.

I THINK IT APPLIES TO MUCH OF THE STATE.

THEY'RE GETTING REPORTS OF A LOT OF PEOPLE BURNING THEIR LEAVES.

>> DON'T DO THAT.

>> AND YOU REALLY SHOULDN'T DO THAT.

AND ACCORDING TO LOCAL POLICE AND FIRE OFFICIALS IN THE AUSTIN AREA, THE FIELDS RE TINDER DRY.

CORN CORNFIELDS AND BEAN FIELDS.

AND SO JUST CHECK AND THINK BEFORE YOU CONSIDER TURNING THAT PILE OF LEAVES INTO A BONFIRE.

BECAUSE THAT COULD QUICKLY SPREAD UT OF CONTROL.

A LOT OF FIRES NOW UP NORTH, AND ACROSS WISCONSIN.

BRIGHT SUN, LOW HUMIDITY.

AND FREQUENT WINDY SPELLS IN RECENT WEEKS.

WE NEED A GOOD SOAKING.

AND IT MAY BE COMING THIS WEEKEND.

THE MODEL IS HINTING AN INCH OF RAIN SATURDAY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EXTENDED RAIN EVENT.

AND I THINK SATURDAY MAY BE THE LAST SHOT AT 70.

BUT WE COOL OFF INTO THE 50s FROM HE -- HALLOWEEN UPCOMING CELEBRATION AND ALSO LOOKS LIKE ELECTION DAY WE COULD BE UPPER 40s TO AROUND 50.

SO NO PARKA WEATHER JUST YET.

BUT MAYBE BACK INTO JACKETS AFTER SHIRT SLEEVES.

BY THE WAY, ON AVERAGE, 30-YEAR DATA, WE SHOULD HAVE SEEN OUR HARD FREEZE ON OCTOBER THE 19TH IN THE METRO.

A FEW YEARS BELOW 28.

FIRST TRACE OF SNOW USUALLY COMES NOVEMBER 10TH.

I WOULDN'T HOLD YOUR BREATH.

THE FIRST ONE-INCH SNOW COVER COMES NOVEMBER 25TH.

EVERYTHING IS BEING DELAYED BY BACKGROUND WARMING, CLIMATE WARMING, AND THIS SUPER EL NINO, WHICH IS HISTORIC.

THAT RED LINE SHOWS YOU WHERE WE HAVE BEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR, COMPARED TO NORMAL, WHICH IS THE BLACK LINE DOWN BELOW AND PREVIOUS EL NINOS.

WE ARE IN UNCHARTED WATERS, AND WHEN YOU HAVE WARM WATER IN THE PACIFIC, THAT TENDS TO HIJACK THE JET STREAM, MORE OF A PACIFIC FLOW.

WE'LL STILL GET SOME ARCTIC OUTBREAKS, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS MANY AS DURING A TYPICAL MINNESOTA WINTER.

ALL RIGHT.

HERE'S NOAAs FORECAST.

COOLER FOR THE UPPER U.S.

PRECIPITATION, ALL IT TAKES IS ONE SNOWSTORM.

AND THE LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE, I FOUND IT INTERESTING, THEY SAID THAT IF WE DO GET SNOW, IT WILL PROBABLY COME IN NOVEMBER OR MARCH.

THE SHOULDER SEASON.

>> GREAT.

>> LESSER CHANCE DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY.

.

.

>> WOW.

>> OH, WHEN WE WANT IT.

RIGHT.

>> THE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN U.S., RIGHT U.S., RIGWRITE YOUR CONGRESSMAN.

>> OR WOMAN.

>> I'M JUST THE MESSENGER.

BUT MY FORECAST PROBABLY MILDER THAN AVERAGE.

STRONG CORRELATION.

PROBABLY MORE ICING EVENTS, WHICH DOESN'T DO ANYBODY ANY GOOD, RIGHT?

THE WINTER WEATHER ENTHUSIASTS NOT EXCITED ABOUT ICE.

AND IF WE DO GET THOSE BIG SNOWSTORMS, A BETTER CHANCE IN NOVEMBER OR MARCH.

AND PROBABLY A FEW IG SURPRISES.

>> LIKE?

>> I DON'T KNOW.

NOT NECESSARILY HERE.

BUT ELSEWHERE.

I MEAN, MASSIVE FLOOGD, MUDSLIDES FOR CALIFORNIA.

THE LAST SUPER EL NINO LIKE THIS ONE, IT WAS '97, '98 AND THE MOST TORNADOES ON RECORD FOR FLORIDA.

SO I THINK THE SOUTHERN U.S.

COULD TAKE A BEATING THIS YEAR WITH A CONGA LINE OF WILD STORMS WHILE WE SAY, HEY, THE BIG STORMS ARE STAYING SOUTH, WE NEED THAT MOISTURE, WE NEED THE SNOW.

AS AN INSULATOR.

I STILL THINK WE COULD SEE AVERAGE SNOWFALL, BUT I WOULDN'T BET ON IT.

>> SO WHAT IS IT THEN FORETELL TO SAY, YOU KNOW, MARCH, APRIL, MAY?

I WOULD THINK THAT THE DROUGHT WOULD DEEPEN AND THAT WOULD BE BIG TROUBLE.

>> USUALLY -- I MEAN, THE SEVERITY OF THE DROUGHT THAT WE'RE IN RIGHT NOW, IT TAKES ONE TO TWO YEARS OF AVERAGE RAINFALL TO COME OUT OF IT.

IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN OVERNIGHT.

IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN AFTER A COUPLE OF STORMS.

BUT MY HOPE IS THAT AS EL NINO FADES BY PRING OF NEXT YEAR, WE GET BACK INTO A MORE NORMAL CADENCE OF SIGNIFICANT STORMS.

HALF THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT WE NORMALLY GET THIS PAST SUMMER.

MEANWHILE, PHOENIX JUST SAW 2-INCH HAIL.

HAIL THE SIZE OF HENS' EGGS.

TORNADOES IN MINNESOTA.

>> OKAY, SO DON'T FLY SOUTH THIS YEAR.

THAT'S THE MESSAGE TO OUR SNOW BIRDS.

>> SNOW BIRDS -- >> STAY HOME.

>> STICK AROUND.

>> WATCH FOR THE ICE.